A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
